2026 TAKEAWAYS
Housing prices contracted at -4.01%, placing us in 19th for Existing Home Sales Price Growth Rate, a continued correction from the unprecedented increases in Existing Home Sales Price Growth from three years ago (26%).
Across our comparison communities, price growth is clearly cooling. Eleven of our MSAs saw home price growth slow or turn negative, and 13 are now growing more slowly than the national average of 0.78%.
It’s helpful to look at this alongside net migration trends. Tampa Bay experienced the second-largest price correction— first experiencing a correction post-COVID, but further influenced by hurricane impacts towards the end of 2024. This is substantiated by changes to other Florida metro areas.
While Tampa Bay decreased over 4%, Orlando saw only a modest 1% decline. South Florida still posted slight growth at 0.22%, and Jacksonville recorded a larger pullback of 2.79%.
Even with these declines, homeowners in Tampa Bay will remain well ahead of the market after the sharp run-up in prices over the past few years (roughly ~26% increase YOY at our peak three years ago).
For buyers, this slowdown could improve affordability and create more realistic entry points into the market.